Technological Forecasting
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Judgment-Based Technological Forecasting Techniques
Cross-Impact Analysis This procedure is an extension of the Delphi method. Cross-impact analysis extends the confidence that can be placed on the forecasts of related events. It allows inclusion of an additional set of factors even beyond those usually considered by the respondents in a normal Delphi process. The purpose of cross-impact analysis is to study the mutual influence of events explicitly and systematically, and to include those influences when forecasting technical capabilities. The set of events being studied for cross-impact potential is subjected to a Delphi analysis where a probability and a date of occurrence is assigned to each event. The events are then entered in a cross-impact matrix, as in Figure 15, where each event's impact is measured against each related event. A revised forecast can be prepared manually or by computer programs that have been developed explicitly for this purpose. 
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