Technological Forecasting
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Numeric Data-Based Technological Forecasting Techniques
Trend Extrapolation, Qualitative Approaches At times, standard statistical procedures do not result in neatly fitting trends that the forecaster can extrapolate with comfort. In such cases, the forecaster may "adjust" the statistical results by applying judgment, or he or she may ignore the statistics entirely and extrapolate a trend wholly on the basis of judgment. Forecasts generated in this way are less precise than statistically based forecasts, but not necessarily less accurate. One example of this kind of qualitative trend extrapolation is the prediction of aircraft complexity. The attempts to quantify this trend have not been successful. But the percent of movable or adjustable parts in an aircraft has been extrapolated from the frequency that such elements were introduced in the past, and these forecasts have been reasonably accurate. Specific technical change cannot be predicted this way, but the degree of change can be. This provides useful inputs to planning by indicating the probable trend of past behaviors. [Back to Table of Contents] [Next Page] |